This is a spin-off of the Rookie Tiers article I do for the baseball magazine every year. With NFBC leagues up and running, I wanted to get the first version of this article out sooner than ever before. This year, I'm breaking it up into separate articles for hitters and pitchers. With this being for the website and not the magazine, I was able to include essentially every hitter (103 total) who I think has a decent enough chance of playing in the majors this season. In the bigger tiers, I found it useful to break up the players by team, so that you can see who each guy might be competing with and compare players in the same organization. Please let me know in the comments if you think I left anyone out — chances are I left them out on purpose or they are no longer prospect eligible, but I'm sure there is at least one or two guys who I accidentally omitted.
High Cost, Total Package
Bobby Witt
There is only one hitting prospect who belongs anywhere near the top 100 picks of a redraft league, and that is Witt. He has similar tools to peak Trevor Story with a much worse home ballpark. Many, myself included, believe he could break camp on the big-league roster. I have no idea where his ADP will settle, but it will surely creep up during spring training. He has the power/speed/playing time combination we crave, but the gap between Triple-A
This is a spin-off of the Rookie Tiers article I do for the baseball magazine every year. With NFBC leagues up and running, I wanted to get the first version of this article out sooner than ever before. This year, I'm breaking it up into separate articles for hitters and pitchers. With this being for the website and not the magazine, I was able to include essentially every hitter (103 total) who I think has a decent enough chance of playing in the majors this season. In the bigger tiers, I found it useful to break up the players by team, so that you can see who each guy might be competing with and compare players in the same organization. Please let me know in the comments if you think I left anyone out — chances are I left them out on purpose or they are no longer prospect eligible, but I'm sure there is at least one or two guys who I accidentally omitted.
High Cost, Total Package
Bobby Witt
There is only one hitting prospect who belongs anywhere near the top 100 picks of a redraft league, and that is Witt. He has similar tools to peak Trevor Story with a much worse home ballpark. Many, myself included, believe he could break camp on the big-league roster. I have no idea where his ADP will settle, but it will surely creep up during spring training. He has the power/speed/playing time combination we crave, but the gap between Triple-A and the majors is so huge right now that I'm skeptical of how his hit tool translates initially. I probably won't have many, if any, redraft shares.
Blue Chippers Who Will Be Up Soon
Adley Rutschman
Spencer Torkelson
Riley Greene
Josh Jung
Nolan Gorman
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Julio Rodriguez
Brennen Davis
Oneil Cruz
Triston Casas
Gabriel Moreno
There is a tier gap within this tier. The first five guys could conceivably break camp in the majors depending on the service-time rules in the new CBA. Even if they didn't break camp and even if the service-time rules remain the same, they'd probably be up within a few weeks. The next five could maybe earn a spot early in the season or even out of spring training, but I could also see them being held at Triple-A for a couple months, which makes it tough to justify rostering them in anything other than a draft and hold or mono-league format.
Proximity + Talent and/or Opportunity
ROYALS
Nick Pratto
MJ Melendez
Kyle Isbel
GIANTS
Joey Bart
TWINS
Jose Miranda
PHILLIES
Bryson Stott
CLEVELAND
Steven Kwan
Richie Palacios
PIRATES
Travis Swaggerty
Diego Castillo
ASTROS
Jeremy Pena
Pedro Leon
DIAMONDBACKS
Seth Beer
CUBS
Alfonso Rivas
TIGERS
Ryan Kreidler
This tier is the sweet spot for draft and holds. I'm really not sure how the playing time will shake out for Pratto and Melendez, so hopefully that will become clearer as Opening Day approaches. At the very least, both players deserve a look in the big leagues, so the Royals should find a way to make that happen sooner than later. Of the players in this tier, Leon is the best prospect for dynasty leagues due to his upside, but the readiness of his hit tool is still very much in question, which makes his ETA quite murky. I wouldn't be surprised if Pena, who will be added to the 40-man roster this offseason, got first crack at shortstop early in the year while Leon gets more reps at Triple-A. Bart, Isbel, Beer and Rivas are candidates to open the year in the majors, but Isbel is the only one who appeals to me for redraft leagues due to his well-rounded skill set. I like the Cleveland and Pittsburgh guys quite a bit if they are given a shot to play every day early in the season. The Tigers will probably keep Kreidler at Triple-A for a couple months.
Proximity Without Opportunity
RAYS
Josh Lowe
Vidal Brujan
WHITE SOX
Jake Burger
Romy Gonzalez
Micker Adolfo
CLEVELAND
Gabriel Arias
CARDINALS
Juan Yepez
Brendan Donovan
Alec Burleson
Nick Plummer
RED SOX
Jarren Duran
Jeter Downs
YANKEES
Chris Gittens
Oswaldo Cabrera
METS
Khalil Lee
ANGELS
Brendon Davis
Michael Stefanic
PADRES
Luis Campusano
REDS
Alejo Lopez
Every player in this tier is big-league ready or close to it. The two Rays guys are obviously the ones with the most pedigree and upside, but as things stand, they don't have a clear place to play in the majors. Even with them being blocked, I'd rather roll the dice on them than on the guys in the tier above. I've been lower on Duran this whole time, and I don't see a team as good as the Red Sox giving him legitimate playing time early in the season unless he has a monster spring training and/or they deal with injuries in the outfield. Burger and Gittens are guys I'd like as end-game plays if they had a clear path to playing time, but both are pretty firmly blocked.
Opportunity + Low Probability
CLEVELAND
Nolan Jones
Oscar Gonzalez
ATLANTA
Cristian Pache
Drew Waters
ROCKIES
Elehuris Montero
Colton Welker
Ryan Vilade
PIRATES
Rodolfo Castro
Tucupita Marcano
DIAMONDBACKS
Stuart Fairchild
Drew Ellis
Jake McCarthy
ATHLETICS
Nick Allen
Cody Thomas
RANGERS
Sherten Apostel
Sam Huff
PADRES
Jorge Ona
PHILLIES
Matt Vierling
NATIONALS
Donovan Casey
These guys all have clear avenues to the big leagues, but they all have some shortcoming that makes them unappealing to me for 2022. Montero, Fairchild, Ellis and Vierling probably have the best combination of likelihood of spending time in the majors and potential to be neutral or better fantasy options at some point during the season in a draft and hold.
Proximity and/or Opportunity Concerns
TWINS
Austin Martin
Royce Lewis
ROYALS
Vinnie Pasquantino
CLEVELAND
Tyler Freeman
DODGERS
Miguel Vargas
Michael Busch
Zach Reks
Luke Raley
Ryan Noda
BLUE JAYS
Jordan Groshans
Otto Lopez
Kevin Smith
Samad Taylor
METS
Mark Vientos
Carlos Cortes
Carlos Rincon
YANKEES
Oswald Peraza
Estevan Florial
GIANTS
Heliot Ramos
MARLINS
Peyton Burdick
JJ Bleday
ORIOLES
Kyle Stowers
Jahmai Jones
CUBS
Nelson Velazquez
DIAMONDBACKS
Geraldo Perdomo
RAYS
Jonathan Aranda
Miles Mastrobuoni
Garrett Whitley
Esteban Quiroz
RANGERS
Bubba Thompson
PADRES
Eguy Rosario
PIRATES
Mason Martin
Cal Mitchell
BREWERS
David Hamilton
Brice Turang
There is a wide range of prospect caliber within this tier, but the main takeaway is these guys are either firmly blocked, multiple months away from being big-league ready or not talented enough to worry about in most formats.
Catching Depth
Shea Langeliers
Bryan Lavastida
Korey Lee
Mario Feliciano
Miguel Amaya
These catchers all have a decent chance to spend time in the majors, but I'd bet against them being positive contributors in fantasy in 2022.